European Indexes

Dugald Malcolm, Montreal, Canada.

Since September, the S&P 500 has managed to rally hard against resistance levels. First it broke decisively above the 200-day moving average and then above overhead resistance levels that had been in place since spring. Once those levels were surpassed it has managed to push its way back up to heights not seen since days of pre-May flash crash, with the moving averages forging out a bullish golden cross along the way. As a result, the S&P 500, along with other North American market indexes have now started trading above their 52-week highs.

With markets on this side of the pond back on track, how is western Europe, where this spring’s debt fears were born, looking now? To answer that, let’s take a look at the charts of the three major European indices.

To begin with, let’s examine the chart of the London Financial Times Index, the FTSE. It seems to most resemble that of the S&P 500. It too fell from April highs to end of June lows. Like its American counterpart, the FTSE broke out of its ‘funk’ in September and has managed to also climb its way back up to new 52 week highs.

Not so lucky, however, is the Cotation Assistée en Continu, aka France’s CAC 40 Index. This is the worst performing of the big three European indexes. While it has managed to make a comeback in September and rise up against resistance at the 3,800 level, the CAC 40 has not been able to push its way back up to previous 2010 highs of 4,086. Trading now at 3,945, however, it is making its way close and, seeing as though at the end of October the moving averages managed to finally form a golden cross of the 50-day above the 200-day, it will most likely succeed in establishing new highs.

We save the best chart for last, as we now look at the chart of the Deutscher Aktien Index, better known as the DAX. While it too suffered a correction from its April highs, it was a much smaller decline than any other index. In fact, unlike the S&P 500, FTSE and CAC, the 50-day moving average of the DAX never crossed below its 200-day, altogether avoiding the formation of a death cross. It would seem that the DAX entered more a period of consolidation or sideways market movement than decline like the other indices.

While the S&P 500, the FTSe and the CAC took hard hits this year, the DAX has come out of the eurozone debt crisis relatively unscathed. Whereas the FTSE and S&P 500 are now only starting to trade at new 52 week highs the CAC continues to lag as it has yet to achieve such levels. The DAX, on the other hand, is the clear winner of this battle of the indices, having managed to take out its previous 52 week highs a month ahead of the others.

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