Deal Nears

We went through this once already.  Maybe they can cinch the deal a second time.

U.S. lawmakers said they made a breakthrough in talks on a $700 billion plan to revive the credit markets and expect to announce an agreement on legislation later today.

Negotiators resolved ``our differences so we can go forward with a package to stabilize the market,'' House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told reporters when negotiations at the Capitol ended after midnight Washington time. Lawmakers will review a written version of the plan later today, she said. The House may vote tomorrow.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said lawmakers are on the brink of ``a deal which will work and be effective'' in the marketplace. More work needs to be done, ``but I think we're there,'' he said.

The news could signal a near-term bottom, especially if we get an inter-meeting rate cut by the Fed, as was rumoured last week.

The action this week will be telling.  We will almost certainly gap up on the open Monday.  It is how the market reacts on Tuesday and Wednesday that matters.  Thursday is the day when short sellers will be allowed to do their thing again - if the government does not change the rules once more - and I'm hearing anecdotally that there is more hedge fund liquidations coming. 

However, several factors make me think at least a near-term bottom may be here.  Many sentiment indicators are showing high pessimism, we have had huge volume on up days (though not the breadth one would normally see at the bottom), and it looks like the semiconductors (which I am long) want to go higher.

In the meantime, the Brits seize a second bank.

The U.K. Treasury will act to protect Bradford & Bingley Plc customers, Chief Whip Geoff Hoon said after the BBC reported the U.K.'s biggest lender to landlords will be nationalized.

Prime Minister Gordon Brown and Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling ``have worked right through this weekend to sort out the problems we're facing,'' Hoon told Sky News. ``I'm confident that in due course there will be a statement from the Treasury about Bradford & Bingley. I'm sure that as with Northern Rock, we will act to ensure that the interests of depositors are properly protected.''


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