Toro's Running of the Bulls Market Blog



The Asset-Driven Economy and the Market

The Asset-Driven Economy

We live in an asset-driven economy.

Monday's Volume at 2010 Low

Volume today on the NYSE Composite clocked in at 3.79 billion, lowest of the year.  This follows the lightest volume rally since the rebound began, in the month on trend to register the lightest volume month in nearly two years.

The Coming Labor Shortage

Want to be a real contrarian?  Try arguing that there are going to be too many jobs this decade.  That is what the BLS does.

Total employment, a measure of all jobs in the U.S. economy, is projected to increase by 15.3 million over the 2008–18 period, representing a growth rate of 10.1 percent. ...

Foreign Direct Investment Has Benefited Canada

Canada has long had a love/hate relationship with foreign direct investment (FDI).  FDI brings economic activity and jobs but conjures up fears of foreign takeovers, especially by the United States.

However, FDI is unequivocally good for Canada, according to the Institute for Research on Public Policy.  Via Worthwhile Canadian Initiative.

NAFTA Increased Wages

NAFTA increased wages in all three countries.

What were the welfare e¤ects of NAFTA? Real wages increased in all NAFTA countries and Mexico had the largest gains. Almost 90% of the welfare gains and half of the increase in real wages for Mexico can be attributed to having access to cheaper intermediate goods. Canada and the United States gained relatively more than Mexico from liberalizing against the rest of the world.

Same Old, Same Old

Does this sound familiar?

  • The market has a scary two week decline.  Everyone panics and sentiment becomes very bearish.
  • The market rips higher on light volume.

Yes, it is 2009 all over again. 

The Fed Raises. Now What?

In a surprise move, the Federal Reserve raised the discount rate by a quarter point to 0.75% after the market close today.

Expect many market pundits to pooh-pooh the rate increase.  That is a mistake.

From 1945 to 1998, at the bottom of a typical bear market bottom, rising interest rates were positive for stocks as rising rates indicated an improving economy and increasing demand for credit.

A Scary Thought

On China's stimulus-induced economy, in this morning's Wall Street Journal.