Toro's Running of the Bulls Market Blog



China's Coming Financial Crisis

I would suggest you pop on over to Zero Hedge and read the article published a few days ago from SocGen on the coming crisis in China.

Gold v Stocks, 1971 to Present

In an article on Monday, Bloomberg compared the returns on gold to CDs since gold hit its last peak.

Gold’s best year in three decades has yet to match the returns of an interest-bearing checking account for anyone who bought the most malleable of metals coveted for at least 5,000 years during the last peak in January 1980.

Gold and Interest Rates, 1979-80

Gold was hammered on Friday as investors stampeded out of a crowded trade, me included.  The impetus for the sharp decline was the stronger than expected jobs report, and a fear that the Fed would start raising interest rates and withdrawing quantitative easing sooner than expected.

Aaannnddd I'm Back Out Again.

Making my broker happy, I blew out of my gold position Friday.  Had I not sold my position on Friday, November 27, I still would have sold it anyways. 

Gold was down 5.7% intra-day. One difference Friday compared to the Friday over Thanksgiving was that volume was huge. This is worrisome. Another big difference is that there was no intra-day reversal as there was over the Thanksgiving holiday.

Momentum Works

As an investor that had Graham and Dodd drilled into my DNA, it took me many years to reconcile that you could make money in momentum stocks.  More importantly, it took even longer to learn how to deal with the emotional aspects of being a value investor investing in momentum names.  ("I've got to sell! It is hitting new highs!")

Canada v US Housing

The Cleveland Fed has written why it believes Canada's housing market did not collapse the way America's did.  They conclude that it was because lending standards were not as lax in Canada as they were in America, and financial "innovation" had not been adopted in Canada to the same extent as it had been south of the border, though that may have been because Canada tends to adopt innovation a few years after the States, and thus Canada may have been somewhat "lucky" in that the US mark

Back In

After selling my gold position two days ago, I have re-established my position.  I may be doing this totally wrong, but following Friday's sell-off, it appears gold wants to go higher.

We are in a melt-up in gold, and I believe one must be quick on the trigger if you want to play it here, because when it does sell off, you are not going to want to hang around.  It will be ugly.

Out of Stocks, Gold

I liquidated my gold position on Friday.  A large down day after strong upside momentum like the sell-off Friday is usually met with either consolidation or selling.  I will be watching gold closely and hope to re-establish my position in the not-too-distant future.

Should You Go to Law School? Probably Not.

For most people, it makes more sense economically to not go to law school.

[B]y undertaking some straight-forward analysis of the factors that come into play I hope to spur future generations of potential law school attendees to think about the question rationally, as one of making an investment. If your law school education were a stock or a bond, offered in the marketplace, would you buy it? Should you buy it? Why or why not