By Sean Hyman

If the current recession started in March roughly, we should be pulling out of this in the stock market next year in the first two quarters. As this happens, carry trading should start coming back.

Know what this means? When President Obama takes over the White House in January, he’ll have a natural advantage. Just as he’s starting his presidency, the natural course of the business cycle will pick up and businesses will flourish again.

Main Street with think “his change” has done it. But savvy investors know that this is just one of the regular “economic waves” that comes as naturally as ocean waves. 

That’s why it’s hard for a two-term president to retain public confidence and thus a high approval rating. Inevitably, a recession and trough happens during their watch and the public blames the President for the natural cycle.