Roseman's Eruptions
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Bonds Versus Stocks: 2010 to 2020
Montreal, Canada
What would you rather own over the next ten years: Stocks or bonds?
A dividend yield of 4% per annum, or 48% compounded, from now until 2020 looks mighty appealing compared to staid bonds after a massive 30-year bull market.
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Big Brother and Austerity Don’t Jive
Montreal, Canada
Big Brother is going to choke taxpayers this decade. He's broke, and looking for income any way he can find it. He'll also attempt confiscation of your wealth and declare this directive as a "political imperative" amid socioeconomic chaos. This is already happening in parts of Latin America (Argentina, Venezuela) and I suppose it's also going to occur someday in Europe as governments boost tax rates to supplement stagnant revenues.
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Gold Pullback Underway, Correction in FX Terms
Montreal, Canada
The summer is typically a bad time to ride most commodities – including gold. Some of the most violent declines in world markets have occurred from May to August combined with massive market dislocations ranging from the Asian credit crisis, Russian GKO default, the NASDAQ blow-up, Enron scandal and, most recently, the global credit crisis.
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Volatility the “New Normal” Since 2000
Montreal, Canada
At the Agora Financial Symposium in Vancouver last week, I heard my colleague and friend, Karim Rahemtulla, deliver an insightful speech just ahead of Dr. Marc Faber. I spoke after Faber, and was followed by the boss, Bill Bonner, right after my presentation. Our Sovereign Society Chairman, Jack Pugley, spoke ahead of Karim – probably the best talk on the history on money and currency debasement I've ever heard.
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Bullish of Fish Farming
Vancouver, Canada
Over 800 delegates are here this week at the Agora Financial Symposium, a whopper of a conference with dozens of keynote speakers. I'll be speaking later this morning just ahead of Bill Bonner and right after Dr. Marc Faber. My topic: The Destruction of Credit, Part II and How to Avoid the Growing Debt Trap Engulfing the Public Sector.
British Columbia is a beautiful province. I flew to Vancouver directly from Montreal yesterday on Air Canada (A321) – about 5 ½ hours. The weather has been perfect.
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Short Term Look at Silver
- Dugald Malcolm, Montreal, Canada
While Eric and I currently hold a longer term bullish view for silver, I decided to take a technical look at the short term price action. I find this provides a good clue in establishing timing for points of entry to or exit from a position. Currently, silver seems to be at a turning point, the outcome of which could very well determine such a short term buy or sell signal.
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Small-Caps Lag Large-Caps in 2010 as Domestic Economy Falters; Emerging Market Margins Rise
Montreal, Canada
Since May 1st, the S&P 500 Index has declined 8.2% compared to a loss of 12.7% for the Russell 2000 Index of smaller companies. And in the latest correction since the May "flash crash," small stocks have entered bear market territory, defined as a loss greater than 20% from their highs.
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Need a Boeing 737?
Montreal, Canada
Asset deflation hasn't escaped commercial aircraft pricing since the credit crisis first began to unfold almost 36 months ago. Monthly lease rates for the most popular aircraft have declined as much as 22% since early 2008.
Inflation is still running wild in healthcare, tuition, medicines and several food groups, including cocoa, coffee and orange juice. But overall, the primary trend for most goods is definitely heading down, posing significant risks to the global economic outlook.
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Deflation Fears Dog Stocks, Commodities Since April amid Big Declines
Montreal, Canada
Asset price deflation has gained momentum since May across a swath of risk-based assets. Investors should heed the warnings and brace for a possible shakeout in world markets this summer or fall. Broader U.S. stock indexes are at the cusp of another major decline, if important support levels fail to hold this week.
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Time for Big Gains in the Grains
Montreal, Canada
What's the worst-performing commodity sub-sector since 2000?
If you guessed livestock, then you're right. Live cattle and lean hogs have produced horrible results over the last decade as a combination of swine flu and China's ongoing ban on American red meat continues to hurt the livestock industry. Prices have indeed ratcheted higher over the last few months but have more to do with seasonal demand than a new bull market emerging for meat and pigs.
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