Roseman's Eruptions
Need a Boeing 737?
Montreal, Canada
Asset deflation hasn't escaped commercial aircraft pricing since the credit crisis first began to unfold almost 36 months ago. Monthly lease rates for the most popular aircraft have declined as much as 22% since early 2008.
Inflation is still running wild in healthcare, tuition, medicines and several food groups, including cocoa, coffee and orange juice. But overall, the primary trend for most goods is definitely heading down, posing significant risks to the global economic outlook.
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Deflation Fears Dog Stocks, Commodities Since April amid Big Declines
Montreal, Canada
Asset price deflation has gained momentum since May across a swath of risk-based assets. Investors should heed the warnings and brace for a possible shakeout in world markets this summer or fall. Broader U.S. stock indexes are at the cusp of another major decline, if important support levels fail to hold this week.
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Time for Big Gains in the Grains
Montreal, Canada
What's the worst-performing commodity sub-sector since 2000?
If you guessed livestock, then you're right. Live cattle and lean hogs have produced horrible results over the last decade as a combination of swine flu and China's ongoing ban on American red meat continues to hurt the livestock industry. Prices have indeed ratcheted higher over the last few months but have more to do with seasonal demand than a new bull market emerging for meat and pigs.
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Asian and Latin Central Banks Tightening Monetary Policy, Fed Lags
Montreal, Canada
Buy surplus currencies and sell deficit currencies. That's the long-term trend now underway as global economic power continues to shift from West to East since 2008.
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Global Recovery a Fraud
Montreal, Canada
In the absence of government fiscal spending since 2009 we'd probably be looking at massive bank closures, business bankruptcies and insolvencies at the state and municipal level.
The global economy is nearing the nadir of this government fuel-injected spending binge and companies must witness revenue growth to legitimize corporate earnings and rising stock values. Cost-cutting is yesterday's news; now companies need to show investors "the money."
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Asset Protection and Overseas Accounts Vital in Age of Big Government and Big Deficits
Montreal, Canada
At the Las Vegas Freedom Fest this past week, I met numerous investors alarmed by the shockingly disastrous state of government finances – federal and state. Most investors at our Sovereign Society presentations – over 2,000 delegates this year – didn't have an offshore or European bank account and were hungry to move some assets overseas.
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The View from Freedom Fest
Las Vegas, Nevada
This marks my first trip to Freedom Fest in Las Vegas. Nowhere will you find a greater concentration of Libertarians and bears than right here. Some big guns in the past have spoken at this conference, including Texas Congressman, Ron Paul -- a Libertarian.
My personal favorite is Doug Casey, an incredibly gifted investor, contrarian and, if you've ever heard him speak, a great entertainer. Nobody gets an audience going more than Doug.
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Sell into Rallies
Montreal, Canada
Sell 'em when you can, and not when you have to. This morning's strong opening is the first positive session in more than a week and I plan on reducing my equity exposure – already near record lows in terms of overall asset allocation.
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Large-Cap Dividends a Value Trap?
Montreal, Canada
Are investors better off buying large-cap stocks paying a 4% dividend over the next 3-5 years or buying a ten-year U.S. Treasury bond yielding 2.96%? What would you rather own?
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