Roseman's Eruptions



Reverse Compounding: An Investor’s Worst Nightmare

For most investors, the Great Crash of 2008 did severe damage to investment portfolios. Unless investors were heavily allocated to Treasury bonds and gold, the majority of asset classes fell sharply in 2008 triggered by the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in mid-September. In 2008, stocks suffered their worst calendar year decline since 1938, dropping almost 40%.

Stress Tests Fabricated to Produce Bullish Surveys

The U.S. Treasury will unveil it much anticipated “stress tests” of the banking system next month and investors are anxiously awaiting the results. But we all know that most banks will indeed pass this survey since anything short of a positive survey will smash bank stocks down again.

G-10 Bond “Bubble” to Bust Ahead of Economic Recovery

In their bold and desperate attempt to save the global financial system from collapse, the world’s largest industrialized economies continue to issue record levels of debt. And, as debt issuance hits the roof in 2009 and 2010, any hints of economic recovery are sure to rapidly deflate government bond markets as investors head for the exits.

Managed Futures Drawdown a Buying Opportunity

The best performing alternative investments in 2008 didn’t belong to rare fine wines, art, stamps or some commemorative coins. That prize belonged to managed futures or Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs), several of which surged more than 30% in a year dominated by incessant volatility, a full-blown banking crisis and the evaporation of more than $25 trillion dollars of global wealth.

Tax Havens Still Serve an Important Purpose

Since the advent of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) earlier this decade, the world’s tax havens have been under fierce attack. Last month, like domino’s falling in secession, Switzerland, Luxembourg, Austria and other leading tax havens all relented to OECD pressure to co-operate on tax-related issues.

Consumer Products Makers Hiking Dividends

The hunt for safe dividend yields is a major theme this year as interest rates head lower across most advanced and emerging economies coupled with the perception that growth stock investing is too dangerous without an income cushion.

Though certainly not immune to the travails affecting domestic consumption, individuals still have to brush their teeth and floss among other daily rituals. And of course, they still have to eat.

Den of Bears Growing Thinner by the Day since March

Long time bears are increasingly abandoning their lair…

After stocks hit a 12-year low on March 8, several high profile bearish investors have since turned bullish. Indeed, the ranks of growing bulls include Steve Leuthold (Leuthold Group), William Flenckenstein (Fleckenstein Capital) and British-based Crispin Odey (Odey Funds).

China and the Future of Gold Purchases

With the International Monetary Fund, or IMF, poised to sell some of its gold this year, gold bug investors are on edge. That imminent sale will probably put some pressure on gold this summer but don’t let it depress you; the big picture remains unchanged as it pertains to the next dollar crisis, skyrocketing U.S. debt levels and the drive to create inflation by deflation-battered and wounded central banks.

Volatility Crashes but for How Long?

The big action in global markets since early March remains largely confined to trends in equities. As fears of an extended global market meltdown have receded since March, the VIX, or CBOE Volatility Index, or fear gauge, has collapsed a cumulative 28% since March 2.

Outside of stocks, barely anything is really moving at all, including government bonds, most corporate bonds, commodities and even currencies.

Time to Bet Against Stocks Again?

As we progress into April, the current bear market rally is now four weeks old and has thus far posted some impressive gains off the March 9 intermittent low. Notice I said “intermittent low” and not “bear market low.” There’s a world of difference between a secular bear market low and a bear market rally; this is not the start of secular bull market similar to 2003 or 1981.