Should You Go to Law School? Probably Not.

For most people, it makes more sense economically to not go to law school.

[B]y undertaking some straight-forward analysis of the factors that come into play I hope to spur future generations of potential law school attendees to think about the question rationally, as one of making an investment. If your law school education were a stock or a bond, offered in the marketplace, would you buy it? Should you buy it? Why or why not

My methodology is as follows. First, I identify the costs of attending law school. These are two: the opportunity cost of not entering the workforce immediately after graduation from college, and the out-of-pocket costs, primarily tuition, fees and books, inherent in attending law school. Based on these costs, I calculate the annuity-like return that must be achieved to recover the costs. This process is more complicated that it might seem, as it importantly requires isolation of the true benefits in terms of compensation offered by a law degree and the identification of an appropriate discount rate for converting such incremental compensation to net present value.  ...

Suppose we convince ourselves that 17% is the appropriate discount rate for the incremental earnings generated by a law degree. Then Solid Performer would need to expect to earn, on average, $33,121 more in his first year of legal employment than he would have earned had he not gone to law school. Given that his hurdle compensation is $80,035, it follows that he must expect to earn $113,156 in his first year. Moreover, the $33,121 wage differential would need to be maintained, and indeed increased at a rate of 3.5% per annum, throughout the remainder of his career. ...

For the Class of 2008, the last year for which statistics were available, the median salary of a fledgling lawyer was $72,000. That salary obviously does not stack up very well against the required salaries set forth in my table. But that median salary tells a hopelessly deceptive story. The distribution of salaries was in fact bi-modal, with fully 42% of salaries falling between $40,000 and $65,000, and a smaller but still very significant number clustered at the elite Biglaw starting salary of $160,000. ...

With the tiniest bit of twenty-twenty hindsight, it is possible to identify, already in the third year of law school, some of the students who have made what has turned out to be not only an ex ante bad investment but an ex post losing investment. Thus, consider the 50% of hypothetical Solid Performers who do not end up with a job offer from a Biglaw firm. They begin their legal careers at a salary that is no higher, indeed is actually lower, than the one they could have obtained without having gone to law school. They are unlikely ever to dig themselves out of that hole.

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