Utilities Show Relative Market Strength in 2009

Utilities might be staid and stodgy but they’re also reliable. And finding anything that’s holding its value in this market is worth a hard look.

With the Dow Jones Industrials Average down 8.5% this year, one of the few areas of the market posting any gains at all is the Dow Jones Utilities Average or DJUA, up 1.6%.

Utilities in the United States currently yield 4.2% and trade 30% below their 52-week high. The index got decked in 2008’s market massacre, plunging 23.6%, including dividends. This compares to a loss of 30% for the Dow Jones Industrials last year, including dividends.



Utilities are beginning to show relative and absolute market strength since January. The DJUA now trades just above its 50-day moving average but remains below its more significant 200-day moving average. Yet relative strength indicators look good and technical analysis points to a basing pattern formation since November.

Though it’s still too early to confirm a primary bull market trend for this sector, utilities might emerge as a leader if stocks finally escape the wrath of this relentless bear. That’s because utilities are heavily regulated in most states and underwent a major legislative overhaul years ago – something that awaits the financial services sector after years of fat profits and excessive bonuses.

One caveat for utilities is the trend in credit spreads, or the difference between the interest rates yielded by utility bonds versus benchmark Treasury bonds.

These spreads have widened sharply over the last 60 days and indicate utilities might run into severe headwinds ahead of major expansion plans and funding requirements amid a tight credit environment.

Still, if the DJUA breaks its 200-day moving average, I’d be bullish on the sector.

Staid and stodgy might be dull. But there’s nothing wrong with a 4.2% annual yield and reliable earnings in a bear market. Watch the utilities.

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