Roseman's Eruptions



30-Day and 90-Day T-Bill Yields Plunge to just 0.10%

Despite signs that several segments of credit continue to improve, namely in the mortgage-backed and investment grade corporate bond market, the rest of the complex remains hostage to nervous money and the accelerated flight to safety in December.

U.S. Treasury bonds, the only asset in the world appreciating along with the dollar and the yen since mid-July, have skyrocketed in value since November 18. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury now fetches just 2.54% -- the lowest yield since 1954.

Municipal Bonds Next on Credit Hit-List

As the credit markets continue to remain largely frozen to weaker credits, investors are starting to abandon the municipal bond market following several weeks of calm.

The municipal bond market in the United States is no slouch. Total outstanding supply stands at $2.7 trillion dollars with the Merrill Lynch Muni Master Index yielding 4.2% or an 8% taxable equivalent. That’s the highest yield in years for municipal bonds.

U.S. Treasury Bonds in “Bubble” Territory

Since 2000, two important financial “bubbles” have popped. The seeds for the third such destruction are now in progress as government bonds in the United States and overseas skyrocket on deteriorating economic fundamentals. Government bonds love bad news as it suggests lower interest rates lie ahead to fuel an economic recovery thereby sending yields lower.

This decade has already witnessed the death of two asset class “bubbles,” both destroyed by either lax monetary policies or rising interest rates.

U.S. Launches New Assault on Consumer Recession, Backtracks on Toxic Mortgage Assets Bailout

The United States is now waging an all-out war against clogged credit markets and attacking each troubled artery head on.

Earlier this week U.S. government officials announced a new plan to pump $800 billion dollars into the rapidly contracting economy by injecting funds into distressed credit markets where banks remain reluctant to lend and continue to hoard cash.

Sweet Returns in a Commodity Crash

This year has been anything but sweet for commodities investors. Since peaking in mid-July, the Reuters-CRB Index has crashed a cumulative 48% with every constituent of the index down sharply – except sugar.

To be sure, another formidable commodity is also holding up relatively well in the Panic of 2008 -- gold. Though down 2% this year that’s far better than just about every other asset class where losses exceed 30%.

Sugar prices have rallied 11% in 2008 on the heels of growing supply shortages.

U.S. and German Bond Yields Plunge, Signal Deflation

The only bull market these days lies in the Treasury bond market. While virtually all other assets have plunged in value in a miserable 2008 for investors, T-bonds remain highly bid amid a rapidly contracting American economy.

The benchmark ten-year Treasury bond opens this morning yielding 2.97% -- the lowest yield since the late 1950s and breaking the previous post WW II low of 3.29% set in June 2003.

U.S. Bailouts Now Total Almost 35% of GDP

First it was the banks. Then Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac followed by AIG, Citigroup and now possibly auto companies, the home builders and the legacy airlines.

Increasingly, the American government is becoming Corporate America’s largest investor. And with that big shareholder responsibility comes a new wave of government regulation in 2009 as Congress moves to unseat greedy banking executives and curtail salaries and bonuses. More government won’t be good for business.

Fed Launches New Assault with $800 Billion to Unclog Credit

The Federal Reserve this morning announced new plans to unclog credit markets as the economic recession continues to deepen across the country, stifling bank lending and resulting in widespread hoarding of cash.

Market now in No Man’s Land; Buyer Beware

Despite Friday’s big 500-point surge, the Dow and all other U.S. indices remains hostage to the consequences of major technical damage inflicted last week. U.S. stocks broke important support levels starting on Thursday with equities touching 5 ½ year lows.

Bonds, a safe haven since last year, saw benchmark Treasury yields crack new multi-year or multi-decade lows. Ninety day bills, for example, now trade at just 0.04% -- the lowest such level since the 1930s.

Let Detroit Die and Revive TARP’s Original Mandate

Since September 1, the S&P 500 Index has now crashed a cumulative 39% -- the worst decline since 1931 for common stocks in the United States. The MSCI World Index over the same span has been pummeled more than 45% -- its worst year since 1974. The latter benchmark was created by Morgan Stanley back in 1969. There isn’t one index in the world that has posted a gain in a miserable 2008.