Roseman's Eruptions



The First of Several Obama “New Deals”

As the Senate slugs out the final version of President Obama’s fiscal spending bill today, the odds favor not only immediate passage but also another rescue package in 2010 if this one fails to halt the rapidly contracting economy.

Caveat Emptor: Valuations Alone Don’t End Bear Markets

With global equities in the gutter over the last 12 months, the majority of indices are now selling at the same price level compared to 1994. That applies to both major and emerging market stock indexes where investors have ruthlessly pounded equities in the wake of massive credit related losses, bank failures and the worst economic recession since 1981-82.

PIMCO’s Gross Labels 2009 a Mini-Depression

Bill Gross, co-chairman of PIMCO, the world’s largest fixed income group has soberly pegged this economic environment a “mini depression.”

Gross is worth heeding. He is the dean of bond investing in the United States for more than three decades and has made some prescient calls on interest rates and other macroeconomic trends. No other bond fund manager has produced better results than his flagship PIMCO Total Return Fund.

Utilities Show Relative Market Strength in 2009

Utilities might be staid and stodgy but they’re also reliable. And finding anything that’s holding its value in this market is worth a hard look.

With the Dow Jones Industrials Average down 8.5% this year, one of the few areas of the market posting any gains at all is the Dow Jones Utilities Average or DJUA, up 1.6%.

Mindful of Inflation, Germans Reluctant to Boost Fiscal Spending amid Rising Chorus of Deficits in Europe

Since the Second World War, no other country in Europe has personified exemplary currency strength, fiscal prudence and export prowess more than the German economic machine.

Long a bastion of quality manufactured goods, the Germans take pride in producing some of the world’s best products and historically have protected the purchasing power of the deutschemark until the introduction of the single European currency in 1999.

History of Economic Pain

Germany knows about economic hardship.

Tired of Near Zero Percent Money?

With interest rates at their lowest levels in a generation and effectively yielding nothing on short-term debt instruments, including bank savings accounts, investors face a serious conundrum: just where do you park some of that precious liquidity to boost your effective yield in today’s highly uncertain environment?

Over the last few months I’ve been plugging alternatives for some, not all, of that cash-based portion of the portfolio.

Investing in Russia not Worth the Risk

One of my biggest mistakes a few years ago was placing a bet on one of Russia’s largest oil companies. In hindsight, despite the incredible value still offered by this investment, I’ve lost more than 50% of my capital and not strictly because of plunging oil prices.

The Next Shoe to Drop Might be a Sovereign Borrower

While global markets are once again reeling from the next chapter of disastrous bank related earnings and the prospects of full government nationalization in several countries, another blow to investor confidence might be around the corner: a sovereign government default.

Don’t be Fooled by Declining Volatility in 2009

Since peaking at an all-time high in October at 89.53, the CBOE Volatility Index or VIX has plunged 56% as stocks seemingly attempt to form a bottom off the November 20 lows. The S&P 500 Index has now risen a cumulative 16.8% since November 20th while the Dow is up 10.5%.

Is this the beginning of a new bull market or an extended rally after more than 18 months of total carnage and nonstop selling?

Canada Swings from Budget Surplus to Deficit Amid Crisis

Just twelve months ago Canada was basking amid a commodity boom accompanied by a bull market in the Canadian dollar, which actually surpassed par-value against the American dollar in late 2007.

In the span of just six months, the Canadian economy has come unglued in a bad way as exports plunge, manufacturing slides deeper into recession and commodity prices collapse. The Canadian dollar, which hit a 7% premium above the U.S. dollar in late 2007 at C$0.93 cents, tanked more than 20% last year.