Consumer Confidence Hits Record Low. And...
From Tony Crescenzi
Results of the Conference Board's consumer
confidence index for October, which was based on responses to
questionnaires sent to consumers at the end of September and collected
through the middle of October, fell to a record low (dating back to
1967) of 38, from 61.4 in September. The results reflect the obvious:
the weak economy, the housing market and the financial crisis. The
previous record low was 43.2 in December 1974.
Value of the S&P 500 on;
December 31, 1974 - 68.56
March 31, 1975 - 83.36
3 month return, 21.6%
On December 31, 1975 - 90.19
1 year return, 31.6%
December 31, 1976 - 107.46
2 year return, 56.7%
Oh, and the daily peak of the market was on January 11, 1973, with the S&P closing at 120.24. Thus, the market had fallen 43% to the end of the month when the consumer confidence index had hit an all-time low.
And the return from the high on October 9, 2007 at 1565.15 to the close yesterday? -45.8%.
Does that mean we can expect the market to go higher on the horrible consumer confidence print? No, of course not. I have no idea what the market is going to do. The market can and will do anything it wants.
But I just think all this is interesting.
I am long US equities, perhaps prematurely so.
»
- Read original article.
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