Germany Will Exit EUR if Bailouts Don’t End

Montreal, Canada

"We didn't sign-up for bailing-out irresponsible countries in Europe. It's not our job to support profligate spending nations. If they can't get their fiscal balances in order then let's drop the EUR and reintroduce the deutschemark."

That's the mindset of most Germans right now about what's going on in Greece and, eventually, Portugal, Spain and other weaker eurozone countries as euro-contagion spreads.

Two-year Greek government bond yields open this morning trading at a whopping 13.52% -- more than many distressed emerging market countries and higher than benchmark yields in Argentina and Venezuela – two banana currencies. Hard to believe but ten years ago Brazilian paper sold at similarly high levels. Today, ten-year Brazilian government US$ debt yields just 4.86% or 109 basis points above Treasury bonds.

This whole Greek debt fiasco is a huge embarrassment for the eurozone and if it spreads to Portugal or Spain, the odds increase that the Germans will revolt and kiss the EUR "Auf Wiedersehen."

The Maastricht Treaty, the monetary and budgetary blueprint for the EUR, doesn't address bailouts and what might happen to the EUR and some of its members if one or more countries decided to leave the eurozone. Yet it's increasingly apparent that the 2010s are likely to be a decade of discontent for EUR enthusiasts at a time when Western countries are faced with an avalanche of spending obligations as a result of the post-WW II welfare state and its far-reaching spending tentacles, including retirement entitlements, healthcare, unemployment insurance and some of the most generous vacation entitlements in the world.

What's also very clear at this point is that civil servants are too big as a percentage of most governments' payrolls, especially in countries like Greece. A major reduction or pruning lies ahead and not just in Greece.

In Greece, for example, individuals actually work about 60 days less than their peers in Germany. But the Germans are promising about 35% or so of the entire €41 billion required to bailout the Greeks. Does this make any sense?

If the 2000s belonged to anything but the U.S. dollar as it pertains to foreign currencies then this decade will probably be the same but for the EUR. The only country worth holding in Europe is the Norwegian kroner; if the Swiss National Bank (SNB) wasn't dumping francs to suppress its value, I'd also include the Swissie. But the SNB has been aggressively selling CHF since March 2009.

However, this doesn't mean the United States will enjoy a secular bull market rally for the dollar.

The Americans are likely to trail other central banks raising interest rates in this cycle (they already lag behind Norway, Australia and Israel), so there's no compelling argument to buy dollars, either.

But there is a compelling argument to buy many of the Asian and resource currencies that harbor trade surpluses and if you can find them -- budget surpluses, too. I'd also include gold and oil in that mix.

Many years ago, my mentor in this business, Jim Rogers, told me that the global exchange rate system was nothing more than a "bunch of drunks at the bar devaluing against each other." More than ever, he's right. The majors, at least, offer poor relative and absolute values and have mountains of debt. The emerging market currencies, on the other hand, will increasingly command a greater share of the revaluation process now underway against the dollar and the majors.

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