In Memory of Sir John Templeton
As a value investor, I mourn the passing of Sir John Templeton yesterday. The pioneering global value investor passed way in the Bahamas at the age of 95. Sir John sold Templeton Investments to Franklin Investments in 1992.
More than any other individual during his lifetime, Sir John catapulted global value investing in the mid-1950s by uncovering cheap stocks across the world. His passing deserves a tribute because he influenced so many investors.
One of the first markets Sir John invested heavily in the late 1950s was Japan.
At the time, Japan was an emerging industrialized economy and its accession to the ranks of global prowess was foreseen by Templeton years before mainstream investors delved into the Nipponese market. Sir John, of course, ended up making a fortune for his investors in the Templeton Growth Fund, as Japan embarked on an unprecedented boom in the late 1950s until 1990 when the market peaked.
Sir John espoused value investing. That philosophy is predicated on finding cheap companies worldwide with strong cash-flows accompanied by low valuations. I wonder what Sir John would be buying today amid the first global bear market since 2002?
Global value investing can be best exemplified by the iShares MSCI Value ETF (EFV). This global index is over-weighted in large cap financials and as you might expect, it’s suffering from a bear market of its own. So far this year, EFV is down 17%.
I’ve got to believe that Sir John would be buying financials right now.
Although we’re certainly far from a trough in the credit crisis as it spreads to commercial loans, real estate and consumer loans, there’s no doubt values have emerged. Bank stocks have crashed over 47% year-over-year. Many financials trade below book-value (if you can ascertain true value at this point amid ongoing write-downs) with large cap banks selling at multi-year lows. Sir John, the devout contrarian, would probably be long several large cap financials right now.
I also bet he’d own Japan.
The world’s investment community is fed up with Japan. The stock market as measured by the Nikkei is still down about two-thirds from its all-time high in early 1990 but trades at book-value and, unlike ten years ago, many Japanese stocks now pay handsome dividends. Also, stocks in Tokyo sell at lower valuations compared to the S&P 500 Index for the first time in memory. Japanese smaller companies, highly volatile, are even cheaper than their large cap cousins – trading at roughly 20% discounts to book-value and down more than 60% from their highs in 2004.
Patience is the #1 criterion for value investors. And many investors are short of patience this year after big double-digit losses for the benchmarks. But I think Sir John would find himself quite excited at the moment because the majority of stocks now trade at multi-year lows and pay high dividends compared to just 12 months ago. The banks trade at a ten-year low.
Rest in Peace, Sir John. You inspired many investors to find true value.
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