Is a dollar rout in the making? 2 Apr 07

Is a dollar rout in the making? 

The potential is there for a major decline in global capital flow to the U.S.:

1) Protectionism i.e. new tariffs against China – this will likely hurt the buck because it will force international investors to rethink sending money to the U.S.; investors such as China who does a lot of funding for the U.S. Treasury
2) Geopolitics – In light of growing turmoil in the Middle East, it seems logical that oil exporting countries, flush with cash, might be afraid to park too much in the U.S. given the potential for “freezing of assets.”
3) Economic growth and the Fed – a deceleration in U.S. growth and potential for recession if the U.S. housing market continues to crater makes the U.S. look less attractive relative to its competitors; not to mention the looming concern about a Fed rate cut making the dollar less attractive on a relative yield basis

What could change this dynamic and avoid a dollar rout?

Stronger than expected U.S. growth; a spike in inflation pulling the Fed in the game; and a positive outcome with China on trade and real progress on Mid East peace…that’s all. 
Maybe not all are required, but it seems U.S. growth will likely be the most critical on this list.  And so far, U.S. growth has been that—a bit better than expected.  So, it seems the jury is still out, but it's not looking good for the buck...

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