Market Action, September 19 2008 - Sorry to Rain on the Parade, But...
A 7%-8% move in the markets over 9 trading hours is quite the move, especially when it is on heavy volume. Yesterday, NYSE Composite volume was 10.2 billion shares, a record. Today, we hit an otherwise massive 9.2 billion shares.
However, the upside volume to downside volume was 8.5:1 yesterday and 6:1 today, certainly significant but probably not enough to signify that the stock market has put in the bottom. There have been much wider disparities in daily upside/downside trading volume over the past year. One would think that the cathartic bottom would see at least 9:1 volume on the upside. That did not happen.
Also, despite the violent upward move, stocks are merely coming into the top of their trading range, which has been primarily downward trending.
The Dow
The S&P 500
The Naz
Retail stocks finished down.
Consumer discretionary stocks finished barely positive and closed on the daily lows.
Now, the consumer stocks were relatively weak because oil rose $6 and they have been strong performers as of late.
However, soon the focus will return to the economy and the consumer is not healthy. As the market begins to re-focus on the economy, I think the recent euphoria will fade and the market will re-test its lows.
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