The World Bank has adjusted its poverty line assumptions upwards, which has increased the estimate of the number of people living in absolute poverty.  However, the general conclusion that poverty has been in the decline remains.  Summary here.

• The old data suggested that the poverty count had fallen below one billion, but with the upward adjustment to the cost-of-living in developing countries we estimate that 1.4 billion people in the world are still poor by the standards of the poorest countries.
• 2.6 billion people consume less than $2 a day in 2005 prices.
• The % below $1.25 a day was halved, falling from 52% to 26% over 1981-2005.
• Number of poor fell by 500 million, from 1.9 billion to 1.4 billion.
• As in past estimates, we find that the composition of world poverty has changed noticeably over time. Numbers of poor have fallen in Asia, but risen elsewhere.
• Dramatic progress in East Asia. Looking back to the early 1980s, East Asia was the region with the highest incidence of poverty in the world, with almost 80% living below $1.25 a day in 1981. By 2005 this had fallen to 18%.
• There are 600 million fewer people living in poverty by this standard in China alone, though progress in China has been uneven over time.
• In the developing world outside China, the $1.25 poverty rate has fallen from 40% to 29% over 1981-2005, though not enough to bring down the total number of poor, which has stayed at around 1.2 billion.
• The poverty rate has fallen in South Asia from 60% to 40% between 1981 and 2005. But this has not been enough to bring down the number of poor.
• The poverty rate has fallen over 1981-2005 in Latin America and the Caribbean, and in the Middle East and North Africa, though not enough to bring down the number of poor.
• Rising incidence and number of poor in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, though with signs of progress since the late 1990s.
• $1.25 a day poverty rate for Africa has shown no sustained downward trend over the whole period; starting and ending the period at 50%. The number of poor has almost doubled in Africa over 1981-2005, from 200 million to 380 million.
• Africa’s poverty rate rose until the mid-1990s but fell after that. The $1.25 poverty rate fell from 58% in 1996 to 50% in 2005, though this was not sufficient to bring down the number of poor.
• The depth of poverty is greater in Africa than other regions. The mean consumption of the poor is lower than any region, at around 70 cents per day in 2005 (using the $1.25 line).
• [T[he Bank’s estimates suggest less progress in getting over the $2 per day hurdle. Indeed, we have seen no change in the number of people living below $2 per day at around 2.5 billion, between 1981 and 2005, although the number has fallen since the late 1990s (having risen prior to that).
• The number of people living between $1.25 and $2 has doubled from about 600 million to 1.2 billion between 1981 and 2005.

Via Johan Norberg