Near-Zero Interest Rates Propel Stock Rally

Zurich, Switzerland

The most compelling argument right now for the bulls is super low interest rates. In the absence of attractive alternatives in a low-yielding world investors are being pulled back into risky assets this year – and for the wrong reasons.

Despite the odd bump every other week, global markets have rallied sharply again in September – historically the worst month for equities. The MSCI World Index has surged more than 60% since hitting a 12-year low in March.

In Zurich, bankers admit that interest rates are too low and alternatives too few. Just where is an investor supposed to turn in this environment? Government bonds at 3.5%? Money-market funds at near zero percent? Corporate bonds yield more than government bonds but have mustered a spectacular rally since March and are not cheap anymore.

The bulls also have the power of impending liquidity. In the United States, more than $3 trillion dollars' worth of cash is still parked in money-market funds. That's about a third of the stock markets' entire value.

There's a big chunk of change still sitting on the sidelines; with every passing day stocks rally more institutions feel compelled to dabble back into the market. That firing power has sent stocks to their highest levels since last November – wiping-out the post-Lehman Brothers bankruptcy losses.

If money-managers are trailing their benchmarks then the pressure to perform grows even more formidable by the day.

The big problem with the above picture is that we really don't know what to expect from corporate earnings over the next several months. Among many troublesome signs, including declining consumer credit demand, rising job losses and massive insider selling, this market isn't cheap anymore.

The only compelling reasons to buy stocks now is because everyone else is doing the same thing and interest rates are so low. Meanwhile, the number of bears grows thinner by the day – another contrarian sign for this market.

Sometimes, you've got to wonder if this market is a train-wreck heading off the tracks at some point. Too many investors are running back into stocks and that's not bullish. I remain under-weighted in equities.

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