Roseman's Eruptions

Spain Should Escape Bond Vigilantes’ Wrath

Montreal, Canada

The single European currency is once again under attack this month after hitting a high of 1.428 earlier this fall vis-à-vis the American dollar. The EUR is down 4.9% from its best level this year as it resumes a decline marked by a seemingly never-ending sea of debt on its periphery.

Coal on Fire as Commodities Shift into Overdrive

Montreal, Canada

It isn’t clean-burning and it’s loathed by environmentalists, but coal is now in a bull market once again after hitting two-year highs this month at $115 a ton based on Newcastle thermal coal prices.

Not even ultra-cheap natural gas – about the only commodity on the planet that hasn’t rallied since the Fed’s QE II announcement – is making a dent in coal prices.

Grain Subindices Correction a Buying Opportunity?

Yesterday, we discussed the remarkable surge witnessed in grain prices this year stemming from declining yields. Indeed the rise has truly been impressive; from its lows in June, the Dow Jones/UBS Grains Index has gained in excess of 60% in intraday trading highs earlier this month.

Food Inflation Triggers another Round of Chaos

Montreal, Canada

China is moving once again to implement price controls. The implications for long-term investors are bullish as the entire food chain becomes increasingly fragile in the age of rapid industrialization, declining crop yields and volatile weather patterns.

Chinese consumer prices rose by 4.4% in October — well above the government’s 3% target. Several large Chinese cities have begun to initiate a cap on food prices as local officials worry that surging costs might trigger a civil backlash.

Uranium on the Move

Montreal, Canada

The big bear market in uranium is drawing to an end. From a three year low earlier this year at less than $40 per pound, the price has rallied 25% this year on the heels of rising demand from China and Middle Eastern countries.

On the supply side, the Russian military is no longer dumping nuclear waste on the market, which aggravated prices for more than 24 months following uranium’s super-spike in mid-2007. From its all-time high more than three years ago, spot uranium prices are down 60%.

Not so Lucky Charms in Dublin

Montreal, Canada

Europe’s sovereign debt crisis is far from over.

A pledge from the European Union (EU) to protect bondholders until 2013 drew buyers back into Irish government bonds on Friday after a shellacking recently. After Greece, Irish debt sells at the highest premium among peripheral eurozone members; yields declined to 8.48% on Friday after exploding higher since September.

Portugal might be next on the hit-list.

Kinross Gold the Best Large-Cap Speculation Now

Montreal, Canada

Throughout the bull market in gold since 2000, producers have consistently earned higher profits as bullion climbs in every calendar year. Input costs have certainly risen over the same period but pale compared to the profits as gold prices have climbed from about $250 an ounce in 1999 to $1,360 an ounce now.

The largest gold mining companies, however, no longer hedge their gold production on a forward basis and some of the results have been nothing short of spectacular this year.

Chevron Joins ExxonMobil in Gas Buying Splurge

Montreal, Canada

What does Big Oil see in beaten down natural gas?

Natural gas prices are down more than 70% from their highs in 2005. Despite the big crash in prices, two of the biggest energy companies in the United States have now spent a combined $28.2 billion dollars purchasing natural gas assets since last year. ExxonMobil (NYSE-XOM) forked over most of that sum following its purchase of XTO Energy for $25 billion dollars.

Agricultural Inflation Trims Food Company Earnings

Montreal, Canada

Food inflation is now a major problem – and governments are likely to accelerate recent intervention efforts to protect important crops.

Agricultural price inflation is approaching fresh record highs this month as a host of foodstuffs skyrocket. Most of the food chain is becoming more expensive by the day; the breakfast club now trades near record highs, including sugar, coffee, cocoa and orange juice. Throw in that morning toast and you’ve got some serious price inflation as grain prices rally sharply since last summer.

“Bubble Ben” Drives Big Rally in Commodities

Montreal, Canada

The CRB Index opens at a two-year high this morning as investors lunge after hard assets in an accelerated environment of dollar weakness and super low interest rates in the industrialized economies. The CRB Index remains more than 34% below its all-time high recorded in July 2008.