Roseman's Eruptions



The Best Commodity Speculation in the 2010s

Montreal, Canada

Even prior to the USDA's (United States Department of Agriculture) surprising forecast for crop yields earlier this month, the grains complex ranked as one of the worst-performing sectors of the commodities space since prices peaked in July 2008. Adjusted for inflation since 1980, corn, soybeans and wheat remain among the cheapest raw materials along with silver; only live cattle and livestock have performed worse over the last 30 years.

Government Leverage Set to Skyrocket in 2010

Montreal, Canada

The odds continue to grow that some sort of bungled central bank policy or combination of policies among the industrialized central banks will trigger the next financial crisis – probably in the debt markets or/and foreign exchange. Greece, Dubai and Iceland are just the tip of the iceberg.

Boston Based Strategist Turns Cautious in 2010

Montreal, Canada

If you never heard of Jeremy Grantham then I suggest you become familiar with his views. The chief investment strategist at multi-billion investment firm GMO in Boston called the March 2009 market bottom and the market peak in 2007. Grantham is an astute market analyst and more often than not has predicted macro trends that usually turn out to be spot on.

Wilshire 5000 Rolling Over; Correction Underway

Montreal, Canada

Are stocks at the cusp of a major correction or worse? It would seem only normal if not healthy that stocks would correct at least 10% from current levels following a rally that has lifted the market almost 73% until its 5% cumulative decline from last Wednesday to Friday.

BRIC and Other Central Banks Buying Resource Currencies, Diluting Dollar and EUR Holdings

Montreal, Canada

Last week, Russia's central bank revealed that it purchased Canadian dollars to supplement its expanding foreign exchange reserves – mostly in dollars and EUR.

The move marks a growing trend in the cash-rich emerging markets whereby central banks are boosting reserves in natural resource currencies and gold since 2009.

Breakout or Breakdown?

-Dugald Malcolm

Montreal, Canada.

After trading sideways for almost two months, the major US indices finally made a break out at the end of December. Since November 9th, the S&P 500, DOW and the Nasdaq were all trading within a rectangle pattern up until a Christmas rally helped break them out of their boxes. Since then, they have managed to make advances into the new year - that is until two days ago, when things started to turn around.

Blame it on China

Montreal, Canada

It should come as no surprise that China is trying to curb lending. Excessive bank credit – unique mostly to China in an environment of tight credit in most countries – prompted to belt-tightening in Beijing this week. The result was a major sell-off for commodities, especially the base metals, which are heavily linked to China's growth cycle.

World’s Top Five Oil Majors Flushed with Cash while Alternative Energy Companies Struggle for Funding

Montreal, Canada

According to a recent report from PFC Energy, the world's top five super-majors are holding about $75 billion dollars in cash. Cash-flow is a prize in the oil business because it allows companies to explore and make strategic acquisitions. And nobody has more cash than Exxon-Mobil – the world's largest oil company based on stock market capitalization.

Earnings Falsely Discount a Strong Recovery in 2010

Montreal, Canada

Thus far into the corporate earnings season, the results have best unimpressive. And U.S. Treasuries have noticed, as the benchmark yield on ten-year paper declines from 3.84% on December 31 to 3.70% this morning.

Outside of the technology sector, which is leading a capital spending recovery this year, companies aren't exactly hitting the ball out of the park with strong numbers.

Big Brother Tightening Commodity Noose

Montreal, Canada

Starting last summer, the Commodities Futures Trading Commission, or CFTC, began to debate new position limits on traders and speculators in the energy complex. Regulators blame the big spike in commodities in 2008 on hedge funds and other speculators and have decided to impose limits on contracts.