Roseman's Eruptions
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Obama Honeymoon Opportunity to Sell Stocks
Global markets rejoiced Obama’s victory yesterday with Asia up sharply on Wednesday. The market finished strongly on Tuesday, a rarity these days since stocks typically decline off their session highs. Any intermittent rally in a bear market should be viewed as an opportunity to sell stocks.
But investors should continue to accumulate busted credits like investment-grade corporate bonds, TIPs and municipal bonds – all trading at hugely attractive levels following a blowout in September and October.
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S&P 500 Still Not Cheap
With global equities finally posting a winning week heading into Monday’s trading, it’s no surprise that pundits are calling another market bottom. I’m not so sure. This is probably another in a series of painful bear market rallies that will eventually see newer lows as the global economy continues to contract, corporate earnings decline and domestic consumption in the United States and abroad wanes. Since August 2007, the market has logged four bear market rallies and all of them ended badly.
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Swiss Guru Braces for Soft Economic Depression
On October 20 I attended a private seminar in New York City and listened attentively to one of Switzerland’s best money-managers to get a perspective on the global market crisis.
There are only a few global-minded investors I really consider when it comes to gaining investor insight. The majority of today’s money-managers are too mainstream and remain obsessed with beating their benchmarks. What a waste of time.
My favourite market seers in Europe include Marc Faber and Felix Zulauf.
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Is the Dollar Rally History?
Is the U.S. dollar’s rally since July topping out?
From its all-time low of 1.605 versus the euro the U.S. dollar has gained a cumulative 18%. The buck now ranks among the world’s strongest currencies since July, trailing behind the Japanese yen. The dollar has soared versus all majors units since July causing all sorts of losses for hedge funds, companies and individual investors. It’s been a disaster.
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October 28 Up-Crash Joins 1930s Bear Market Action
Yesterday’s spectacular 889 point rally for the Dow ranked as the sixth largest daily percentage gain in history for the world’s most widely followed benchmark. The Dow surged 10.9% on Tuesday and other international markets also followed suit with huge double-digit gains.
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Oil Majors at Four Year Lows
The majority of large-cap oil stocks didn’t produce strong gains as oil prices skyrocketed to $147 a barrel earlier in July. That’s too bad because the massive reversal we’ve seen in prices since oil started tanking has resulted in some big bargains.
If the oil stocks didn’t surge amid $100-plus oil they’ve certainly collapsed on the way to $63 a barrel. The fact is most of these big companies are priced for $32 a barrel oil, according to Macquarie Research.
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Global Investing will Change Forever
It’s highly likely that an entire generation of investors will never return to stocks again following the worst drubbing for equities in a single month since the spring of 1932.
It’s also likely that many retirees will never buy another stock or mutual fund. And younger investors will probably shun stocks altogether because of the enormous losses suffered by benchmarks over the last 12 months – a major deterrent for new long-term investors planning for retirement or college.
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Major Capitulation Ahead
By now most investors should be quite light on common stocks. The market shows no signs of bottoming with each blow-off decline just another in a series of lows.
The recent up-crash on October 13 following the big market collapse on October 9 was unimpressive. There was barely any follow-through the next day. The stock market continues to decline and this morning’s opening looks like another tumultuous session with S&P 500 futures down more than 60 points or 6.6%.
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Emerging Markets in Crisis -- Again
Boom and bust…
The emerging markets are now under pressure in late 2008 and showing classic signs of a bust. Some countries, however, like Chin, India and Brazil should survive in good form; others won’t.
The last emerging markets bust occurred from 1997 to 1999. Prior to that collapse, triggered by the Asian economic crisis, the asset class submerged in 1994-1995.
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Deflation Fears Hit Gold, Massacre Gold Stocks
While most investors remain fixated on the spectacular damage done to financial shares this year, another sector of the market is suffering from major heartburn – gold mining stocks.
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