The Death of Equities, Part II

 

We here at Running of the Bulls are on the look-out for anecdotal turning points in the market.  These are events or proclamations which, in hindsight, represent overwhelming conviction at the turning point, that all those who at the top are going to buy have done so, and all those who are going to sell at the bottom have done so.  Such examples are David Lereah's book on the boom in housing just before housing topped out, James Glassman's book, Dow 36,000, published at the top of the market in 2000, and most famously, BusinessWeek's cover proclaiming The Death of Equities in 1979, just before one the greatest bull markets of all time was about to start.

More recently, we noted that the bottom in the dollar was near when stores in New York began accepting euros and Supermodels insisted on being paid in euros.  I contend that uber-bank bear, Meredith Whitney, starting her own investment banking firm will be another anecdotal turning point for the bank stocks in the not-too-distant future.

Now, we have bond king, Bill Gross, ininadvertently providing us with yet another anecdotal turning point.

In Gross's view, the current economic contraction is killing the animal spirits that drive risk taking and that's contributing to the death of equity capitalism as we've come to know it.

As Gross told me, "things will never be the same. Risk taking has been destroyed and any animal spirits must come from Washington. Global growth rates -- low, low, low -- asset classes will be readjusted for that outlook. That is -- stocks will be more of a subordinated income vehicle as opposed to a 'stocks for the long run' growth vehicle."

Essentially, Gross is making the case for the Death of Equities.

I very much want to emphasize this point.

Buy and hold, stocks for the long-run, is more relevant now than at any point in the last 30 years!

I cannot stress this enough.

Right now, putting away stocks for next decade or two will be a highly very profitable endeavor, even if stocks fall substantially from here!  Those making the proclamation that buy and hold is dead will look very foolish 10 to 20 years from now.

I want to stress - I absolutely do not think that buy and hold is a good strategy all the time.  It is, in fact, horrible advice when stocks are expensive!  When stocks are expensive, sell all your stocks and buy something that is cheap, or put it in cash.

But when stocks are cheap, load up the truck, and wait.

And now, stocks are cheap.  Very cheap.

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