Timing the Market: A Mug’s Game

When’s the best time to buy foreign currencies? When’s the best time to buy or add foreign stocks and bonds? And what about commodities: Is this a good time to load-up on things like oil and corn after a plunge recently?

I’m often asked about these and other market timing related investment questions. And my answer is always the same: Target a long-term asset allocation plan for your investments and stick to that plan.

In theory, it might sound like a good idea to buy the Swiss franc at the cusp of a big move or add crude oil ahead of a price surge. But for the majority of investors timing is not a good strategy. It forces you to trade frequently, realize capital gains or losses too often and sets you on the wrong path to financial freedom.

The first question a global investor should ask “is whether he or she seeks a dollar or a euro-based portfolio?” If it’s the latter, you can achieve that at Jyske Bank in Denmark and other European private banks; remember, unless you invest in a tax-deferred offshore variable annuity or an IRA, you can’t buy offshore mutual funds. But the entire gamut of global securities is indeed available, including stocks, bonds and foreign currencies.

Next, determine your growth horizon and risk objectives. How many years can you be invested in the market? Can you stomach a bear market (like now) or sudden market declines? If your plan is to stay invested, then consider at least a five-year plan. Stocks generally rise over a full five-year cycle, so try to stay invested through thick and thin.

Finally, determining your asset allocation is by far the most critical objective at this stage.

How much should you allocate to stocks or equity funds, hedge funds, hybrid funds and exchange traded funds? Don’t forget to reduce portfolio risk by including investments that negatively correlate to stocks, like commodities and currencies. In a bad day like yesterday, most commodities and currencies gained on the day as the market sagged again. Also, a fixed weighting in a reverse index fund might be appropriate for you if you hold common stocks.

Investing should largely be painless and even fun. Sitting down with a pen and paper is a good way to begin deciphering your long-term investment objectives. Also, a registered and licensed CFP or financial planner can help you get started own this road.

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