Toro's Running of the Bulls Market Blog

Nine Percent of Mortgages in Foreclosure or Behind Payment

From The New York Times

About 1 in 11 American mortgages were past due or in foreclosure at the end of March, according to a report released on Thursday, a figure that is rising fast as home prices fall and the job market weakens.

Oil Goes Up, Driving Goes Down

I have had people tell me that energy demand does not fall when prices go up.  I am unsurprised when they tell me they have never so much as had a class in economics.  I am surprised when they make such assertions without any grounding in the discipline on which they are commentating so assuredly.

From the New York Times, via Greg Mankiw

Sweatshops Improve the Lives of the Third World Poor

As hard as it may seem to rich Westerners, surfing the Internet, enjoying air conditioning and sipping on a latte, sweatshops in the Third World generally improve the lives of the poor in those countries.

Shorting Canada. Again.

I have re-established a short position on Canada.

It has not been a profitable position so far.  But futility has never persuaded us here at Running of the Bulls!

The Toronto Stock Exchange approached an all-time high today, then closed down.  The MACD and RSI, however, did not close to hitting the recent highs. 

Oil Mania

You could feel the pain.  You could feel the pain of the shorts who got caught in oil.  You could feel the shorts screaming as oil rose over $16 in two trading days.

Perhaps we will hear news of failed hedge funds over the next week.

The bull market in crude continues as we enter the frothy part of the bull, aka Bubble 3.0.  Where and when it will end, I have no idea, but it will end, that I know.

Headwinds for Gold?

I remain long gold.  However, the press conference yesterday by ECB President Trichet knocks holes in my positive gold thesis.

Portfolio Shift

Over the past few weeks, I have been buying the semiconductors, particularly semiconductor equipment companies but also some of the chip names.  The group did not get as cheap as I usually like, but with the cycles becoming muted compared to prior years, growth slowing and more capital discipline, I do not think valuations will get as low as they have in the past.  Also technically, they appear to be bottoming.

Oil Rises, Gold Falls Because Dollar Might Go Down or Up

Today, oil rose and gold fell.  I scoured the Bloomberg to find out why. 

At 2:57, Bloomberg posted this article on the Bloomberg terminal about gold falling because traders expect the dollar to rise.

Gold futures fell to the lowest close in three weeks in New York on speculation that the U.S. will raise interest rates to protect the dollar, cutting demand for the precious metal as an alternative investment.

Bank Borrowings from the Fed

Amazing graph from the St Louis Fed, courtesy The Big Picture.

Oil Bubble

From the site of the fabulous Kate Welling