Trading Intra-Month Has Paid

Here is an interesting bit of minutiae - since the market began collapsing in September, if in each month you had bought stocks in the middle of the month and sold equities at the end of the month, you would have made money. 

Given how horrendous the market has been, it almost sounds unbelievable, but it is true.  The following are the returns of the S&P 500 for the first half of the month for September through January.

Investors have lost a total of 40% during the first half of the month.

However, cumulative returns look much better for the second half of the month.

Buying the S&P 500 mid-month then selling at the end of each month has generated a gain of 7%.

February broke the pattern in the first table, at least for the S&P 500, as the index has risen 0.1% month-to-date.  Not screamingly bullish, it is true, but it beats the average decline of 9.4% during the first two weeks of the prior five months.  Perhaps we are setting up for a positive February.

Hope springs eternal!

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