Volatility Crashes but for How Long?

The big action in global markets since early March remains largely confined to trends in equities. As fears of an extended global market meltdown have receded since March, the VIX, or CBOE Volatility Index, or fear gauge, has collapsed a cumulative 28% since March 2.

Outside of stocks, barely anything is really moving at all, including government bonds, most corporate bonds, commodities and even currencies.

The lack of volatility in currency markets has been especially mysterious considering the relationship between the dollar and risk adversity since the onset of the credit crisis almost 20 months ago. As markets bled, investors dumped risky assets and piled into the dollar amid a wholesale liquidation of risk; the dollar has been rising only because institutions have been flooded with investor redemptions, which generated aggressive dollar accumulation.

The worst performing major currency, however, belongs to the Japanese yen, down over 14% since hitting an 11-year high earlier in March. The Japanese economy certainly doesn’t deserve a strong currency considering a whole range of economic data has literally crashed since January.

If risk is re-entering global markets then the U.S. dollar should be next on the firing line as investors move out of low-yielding Treasury bonds and sell dollars in the process. This should benefit hard assets, including oil and gold as investors once again seek to hedge their dollar assets from fears of rising inflation over the next 36 months.

Yet the U.S. Dollar Index (see below) is still hanging in there and remains above its important 200-day moving average but below its 50-day moving average. If the U.S. Dollar Index breaks below 81.70 then it’s quite probable the dollar will have peaked in the post-2007 credit crash.



Other assets, including crude oil – the largest single constituent in commodities indices – has also been confined to a trading range over the last few weeks. Crude oil has been unable to decisively break above $55 a barrel on this rally following a low of $33.87 earlier this year.

One of the most interesting market anomalies exist in the government bond market. Volatility has been markedly low even though investors have been selling Treasury bonds to buy stocks.

The United States, along with several other countries, is now heavily engaged in quantitative easing, which is basically a fancy term that equates to long-term inflation creation through debt monetization. Even though the Fed has been aggressively buying back Treasury debt over the last few weeks, yields on the entire range of Treasury debt has actually climbed, not declined.

If the Fed was not buying back Treasury debt over the last few weeks it’s highly probable that the entire Treasury yield curve would have steepened much further; hopes for an economic recovery – confirmed by the ongoing equity market rally since March 9 – should be accompanied by rising, not declining Treasury yields and therefore much higher volatility.

Volatility is now approaching an attractive level for speculators. The VIX can now be traded as an exchange-traded-note, or ETN, in the United States (symbols VXX and VXZ) while providing an easy route for investors to hedge their portfolio risk from the next correction. From its all-time high of 80.86 last fall, the VIX is now down 53%.

With the economy likely to be mired in a sluggish state over the next few years amid a deep credit deflation, investors would be wise to build some portfolio protection following a 30% gain for stocks since March.

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