The thesis from which I have been operating - though it has been getting harder the past few days - is that we are at or near the bottom of a wide trading range.

However, though we may be bottoming - a belief of which I am having increasing doubts - I do not believe that a new bull market is imminent, for the following reason.

Though I hope I am wrong, I think it it will be difficult for a new bull market to commence until the bulk of mortgage resets pass, which will not be until 2011.

From Paul Kedrosky.