Roseman's Eruptions



Technically Speaking

-Dugald Malcolm

Montreal, Canada.

I am looking very carefully at the movement of the S&P today, specifically at the 1101 level, which is being flirted with as I sit here typing. That represents the high made back on October 21st and is the current level of resistance.

Portfolio Hedging Comes Cheap in Late 2009

Montreal, Canada

Bulls and bears should both embrace portfolio hedging ahead of the next correction or panic. Learning how to apply a hedge or a series of hedges can mitigate market risk while protecting portfolios. That's especially true today with stocks in the midst of their greatest rally in more than 100 years.

The View from Cabo

In-Transit in Dallas, Texas

Seasonal Factors Work in Reverse in 2008-2009

Montreal, Canada

Do seasonal trading factors generate a net profit for investors?

If market history is any guide the best time to buy stocks is in late October and the best time to sell them is in May.

According to Thackray's 2010 Investor's Guide, the most profitable trade since 1950 has been to buy large-cap stocks (S&P 500 Index) on October 28 and selling those same stocks on May 5.

An investor with an initial $10,000 applying this strategy since 1950 would have seen his investment grow to $862,619.

America Follows England’s 20th Century Decline as Wars, Deficits Claim Empire

Montreal, Canada

No other global power since the Romans has dominated the world. The United States will go down in history as the greatest economic and military power – hands down.

Swayed from isolationism in the early 20th century to full-blown global superpower by late 1944, the United States almost claimed its biggest creditor or lender in 2009 – China. The Korean War (1950-1953) almost resulted in an American invasion of China.

Credit Haunts Europe, Booms in China

Montreal, Canada

The credit system might not be jammed compared to 12 months ago but it's still clogged across Europe. But that's not the case in China where credit is almost free, courtesy of the People's Bank of China.

Jim Rogers Predicts Dollar Rally Amid Stock Correction; Sell Dollars on Strength

Montreal, Canada

Jim Rogers, who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros in 1970 and subsequently went solo several years later, is now widely regarded as one of the premier global investors. He's also been instructive to my investment career since 1991; no other investor has made a bigger mark on my investment strategies than Rogers. I'm sure many other investors have been equally inspired.

U.S. Retail Investors Follow Central Banks in Bond-Buying Frenzy

Montreal, Canada

When it comes to market-timing, central banks take the booby-prize for buying or selling assets at the absolute worst moment. And retail investors are following them to the edge of the cliff.

China’s Dubious Growth Rate Warrants Caution

Montreal, Canada

The global economy is pinning hopes on a strong and sustainable Chinese recovery. Conventional wisdom now accepts a powerful, liquidity-driven recovery underway in China this year as GDP expanded by 7.1% the first six months of the year.

Decline of the Dollar

- Dugald Malcolm

Montreal, Canada

Earlier this month while writing about gold, I posted a chart of the U.S. Dollar Index to demonstrate the abysmal state of the U.S. Dollar. The index is valued relative to a basket of currencies, including Euros (57.6%), Japanese Yen (13.6%), British Pound Sterling (11.9%), Canadian Dollars (9.1%), Swedish Kronor (4.2%), and the Swiss Francs (3.6%).