Roseman's Eruptions



Mexico Needs to Look Beyond Oil

Mexico City, Mexico

This is probably the hardest trip of my life. My sister and I are in Mexico City this week liquidating my late father's apartment. My dad passed away at 72 on September 23 after years of neglecting his health. Though we endured a conflicting relationship he was still my father and he is sorely missed. This trip is difficult.

I've been visiting Mexico for decades and enjoy the country. I love Mexican food, the beaches and the weather. But Mexico's economy is running on borrowed time.

Gold Is Still King

- Dugald Malcolm

Montreal, Canada.

With Eric away, I will take the opportunity to revisit one of my favourite topics that I had last addressed in July: gold. Let me reiterate what I had said then, that both Eric and I view gold as an essential part of one's portfolio, with Eric suggesting time and time again that it should represent at least 10% of the portfolios allocation.

Deutsche Bank Changes ETF Allocations

Montreal, Canada

Deutsche Bank, one of the biggest sponsors of commodity exchange-traded-funds, has announced changes to two of its multi-billion dollar products. One of these, the PowerShares DB Multi-sector Commodity Trust Agricultural Fund, or DBA, remains an open position in the TSI Portfolio (Sovereign Society).

Whitney on Credit

Montreal, Canada

Meredith Whitney, who accurately predicted the 2007-2009 credit crash and now runs her own consulting firm, is now warning of another credit unravelling.

According to Whitney, credit is still contracting. With the exception of large-cap companies, smaller-sized businesses are struggling to raise capital and the wider implications for the economy are bearish. Small companies employ 50% of the U.S. workforce and contribute 38% to GDP, or Gross Domestic Product.

Correction or Something Deeper?

Montreal, Canada

The S&P 500 Index appears to be in a correction since last week with the broader market now down 5% from its 2009 high. That figure includes the opening this morning following a disappointing September jobs report. U.S. unemployment now sits at 9.8% -- the highest level in 26 years.

PPIP Gets Poor Response with Only $1.1 Billion Raised

Montreal, Canada

No sooner after my commentary yesterday on the poor reception of the Public-Private Investment Program (PPIP) do we learn of the fresh round of financing raised for this government-sponsored plan.

Credit System Recovers but Systemic Risk Survives

Montreal, Canada

The biggest long-term threats to the viability of the financial system remain a clear and present danger in late 2009. Nothing has been done to fix this imminent threat or to isolate toxic assets that triggered the first wave of the 2007-2009 credit crisis.

Treasury Yields an Enigma as Stocks Surge

Montreal, Canada

Big mergers and acquisitions news helped propel global stock prices higher yesterday with triple-digit gains recorded by most global indices. Though rising merger volume is bullish for the market, it's not enough to justify the ongoing sense of euphoria gripping risky assets since March. At this point, the rally has gone too far, too fast.

Buy Corporate Bonds on Weakness

Montreal, Canada

In late 2008 I made the compelling case for high quality investment-grade bonds. In 2009, high-grade debt has gained 16.4%, according to the Dow Jones Corporate Bond Index compared to 18.6% for the S&P 500 Index, including dividends.

A Lonely Dollar Bull in 2009

Montreal, Canada

The odds of the Fed raising interest rates heading into yesterday’s final session of the FOMC was next to nil.

The Federal Reserve will keep rates at current levels for a long time in the absence of bank credit growth, weak credit demand, a gaping hole in financial sector intermediation and a soft housing recovery. Also, the Fed has never hiked rates when unemployment has been in a downtrend.