Toro's Running of the Bulls Market Blog



Stocks and the Yield Curve

The yield curve is steep.  Historically, that has been good for stocks, at least over the intermediate term.

From Bespoke.

Stocks with EV/EBITDA Less Than 6.0x

There are 83 companies in the S&P 500 with an enterprise value to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization - or EV/EBITDA - multiple of less than 6.0x.

Many of those companies are cyclical companies which will see falling profitability and higher valuation.  However, the following companies are also trading at 6.0x EV/EBITDA or lower.

Intra-Day Market Returns

Another trading day, another collapse in the final hour. 

The Dow's cumulative loss of 550 points over the past two days has occurred during the last hour of both days.

This is insane. 

These last hour swoons (and gains) have been quite common in this vicious two-month sell-off

So that got me thinking - what have been the intra-day returns?

Since 1996, Cash Has Beaten Stocks

That almost certainly will not be the case over the next decade, however, given that stocks are cheap while 1-month T-bills were yielding 0.04% and 3-month bills were at 0.09% today.

From Marketwatch.

Buybacks

What Will Be the Market's Next Big Move?

The market has been trading in a range over the past month. 

What direction do you think the market will take when it breaks out?  What will be the market's next big move?  Up or down?

Feel free to state why you think so.

1974 & 1987 Redux

Great graphs from Bill Cara juxtaposing the 1974 and 1987 market collapses with the current one.

On the Bailout

Great interview this morning on CNBC with Eric Hovde on the chaos known as TARP.  I highly suggest you watch it.

I especially like the comment about the "35 year-old technology investment banker from Goldman" running the program.

Baltic Dry Index

This is a 10-year graph of the Baltic Dry index

And this is a short-term graph.